Post-Normal Times
A concept from British philosopher Jerry Ravetz and Argentinian mathematician Silvio Funtowicz, describing situations where “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent” (Ravetz, 1999). The term “post-normal” distinguishes these conditions from “normal science” in the Kuhnian sense — periods where paradigms are stable and problem-solving is routine. 1
Sardar’s Characterization
Ziauddin Sardar (2010) describes our age as:
“characterised by uncertainty, rapid change, realignment of power, upheaval and chaotic behaviour. We live in an in-between period where old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have yet to be born, and very few things seem to make sense.”
In post-normal times, the world has both centrifugal and centripetal tendencies — transcendence and collapse coexist. “Collapse contains the fractal seeds of transcendence.” 2
Cross-Domain Connections
- vuca: The military’s VUCA framework and post-normal science address overlapping conditions from different traditions
- gonzo-futurism: Pickard’s manifesto is a response to post-normal conditions
- security: Cybersecurity operates in inherently post-normal conditions — facts are uncertain (zero-days), values are in dispute (privacy vs. security), stakes are high, and decisions are urgent
See Also
- gonzo-futurism
- vuca
- ooda-loop
- justin-pickard
- technological-singularity — the limit case of post-normal conditions: models themselves break
- clarke-horizon — a frame for when civilization’s facts become illegible in principle
- unknown-knowns — post-normal conditions elevate the unknown-unknowns quadrant; the unknown-knowns literature asks what we already know but can’t access